Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals Prediction For 4/21/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
• Run Line: Orioles 1.5 -185, Royals -1.5 160
• Money Line: Orioles 100, Royals -120
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 48%
• Kansas City Royals - 52%

Projected Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 53.47%
• Kansas City Royals - 46.53%

Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 21, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium. This American League matchup is the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Royals, with a season record of 13-8, are having a great season so far. They will be playing as the home team, hoping to continue their success. The Orioles, on the other hand, have a record of 13-7 and are also having a great season. As the away team, they will look to maintain their strong performance.

The Royals are projected to start Seth Lugo, a right-handed pitcher. Lugo has started four games this year and has an impressive win/loss record of 3-0. His ERA stands at 1.05, showcasing his excellent performance on the mound. However, his 4.49 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward.

Cole Irvin is projected to start for the Orioles. Irvin, a left-handed pitcher, has started three games this season with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 6.75. However, his 4.64 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and might perform better in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Royals rank 12th in MLB this season, while the Orioles rank 5th. However, the Royals have struggled with home runs, ranking 26th in the league, while the Orioles rank 17th. On the other hand, the Royals excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th, while the Orioles rank 17th.

Considering the projections, Lugo is expected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 4.4 batters and allow 5.6 hits and 1.9 walks on average. Irvin, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 4.1 batters and allow 5.7 hits and 1.2 walks on average.

Based on the current odds, the Royals have a higher implied team total of 4.66 runs compared to the Orioles' 4.34 runs. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation for a high-scoring game. The Royals are favored with a moneyline of -125, giving them a 53% win probability, while the Orioles have a moneyline of +105, with a 47% win probability.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cole Irvin has averaged 14.4 outs per start since the start of last season, checking in at the 19th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Cedric Mullins II has been hot in recent games, bashing 3 home runs over the last 7 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Baltimore's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in baseball: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The Baltimore Orioles have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Seth Lugo in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Sporting a .441 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Nelson Velazquez has performed in the 98th percentile.

• ISO is an advanced metric that measures a player's ability to hit for power. Power, of course, is crucial for hitting home runs and extra-base hits.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.4% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 61 games at home (+12.37 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 86 of their last 143 games (+25.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Garrett Hampson has only hit the Total Bases Over in 2 of his last 5 games (-2.15 Units / -29% ROI)

Orioles vs Royals Prediction: Orioles 4.92 - Royals 4.34

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