Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros Prediction For 6/22/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles visit the Houston Astros on June 22, 2024, fans can expect an intriguing American League matchup. The Orioles, sitting comfortably with a 49-26 record and enjoying a stellar season, are looking to continue their dominance. The Astros, on the other hand, have had a below-average season with a 36-40 record but are eager to turn things around.

On the mound for the Astros is Ronel Blanco, a right-handed pitcher who has shown flashes of brilliance this season with a 7-2 record and an impressive 2.43 ERA. However, his advanced metrics, including a 3.98 xFIP, suggest he might have been a bit lucky and could be due for some regression. Blanco is a high-flyball pitcher, which could spell trouble against the Orioles' powerful lineup, which leads MLB with 119 home runs.

The Orioles will counter with Corbin Burnes, another right-hander, who has been nothing short of phenomenal this year. Burnes boasts an 8-2 record with a stellar 2.14 ERA. Despite a 3.29 xFIP indicating some luck, Burnes remains one of the top pitchers in the game, ranked 20th according to advanced stats. His high-groundball rate could neutralize the Astros' power, as Houston ranks 4th in MLB in home runs.

Offensively, both teams pack a punch. The Astros, with the 7th best offense, lead MLB in batting average and rank 4th in home runs. Yordan Alvarez has been their standout performer recently, hitting .357 with a .971 OPS over the last week. The Orioles, however, have the 3rd best offense and lead MLB in home runs. Anthony Santander has been on a tear, hitting .360 with five homers and a 1.353 OPS in the past week.

The bullpen battle is also worth noting. The Orioles have the 11th best bullpen, slightly better than the Astros' 14th ranked unit. This could be crucial in a tightly contested game.

With the Orioles favored to win at -145, the projected total runs for the game is set at 8.0. Given the current form and the pitching matchup, Baltimore seems to have the upper hand. However, with Houston's potent offense, fans should expect a competitive and entertaining game at Minute Maid Park.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Compared to average, Corbin Burnes has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 3.9 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Ryan O'Hearn has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (62.4% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jon Singleton has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph dropping to 82.4-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Loperfido, Jon Singleton, Trey Cabbage).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 games (+13.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 59 games (+16.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+11.75 Units / 90% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.28 vs Houston Astros 4.16

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