Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers Prediction For 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On September 15, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will host the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park for the third game of their series. As both teams head into this matchup, the Tigers find themselves with a record of 76-73, having settled into an average season, while the Orioles boast a stronger 84-65 record, marking their campaign as successful. Notably, Cade Povich of the Orioles is hoping to bounce back after a rough outing, as he has struggled all season, posting a 2-8 record with a troubling 5.91 ERA.

The projections favor the Orioles' offense, ranked 5th in MLB, against a Tigers offense that is struggling at 25th. While Parker Meadows has shown recent promise for Detroit, leading the team with a .348 batting average over the last week, the overall team performance is lacking, particularly given their low rankings in home runs and batting average. The Orioles, led by their best hitter Gunnar Henderson, are hitting .375 over the past week and have a more robust lineup capable of putting runs on the board.

On the mound, Keider Montero is projected to pitch for the Tigers, and while he has not been particularly dominant, his xFIP of 4.28 indicates he might have had some bad luck this season. Although he projects to allow 2.5 earned runs, he might also face issues against an Orioles lineup that excels at hitting for power.

With both teams having similar theoretical win probabilities, the projections suggest the Tigers could outperform their implied team total of 4.25 runs. As the Tigers aim for a strong finish, this game presents a crucial opportunity to build momentum against a potent Orioles squad.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich has been unlucky this year, notching a 5.91 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.54 — a 1.37 disparity.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Eloy Jimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen projects as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Over his previous 3 GS, Keider Montero has suffered a significant decrease in his fastball velocity: from 94.2 mph over the whole season to 93.2 mph in recent games.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Trey Sweeney has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 92.2-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Trey Sweeney hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Cade Povich has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.05 Units / 74% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.82 vs Detroit Tigers 4.62

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.