Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers Prediction For 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles
  • Brant Hurter - Tigers

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on September 13, 2024, they find themselves in a strong position in the standings. The Orioles are 83-64 and enjoying a good season, ranked 1st in home runs. In contrast, the Tigers sit at 75-72, having had an average season overall, especially highlighted by their 25th rank in team offense. This matchup marks the first in a series that promises potential for both teams.

The last time the Tigers took the field, they faced a disappointing loss, which could put additional pressure on them. They will be sending Brant Hurter to the mound, who has had an impressive individual year with a 4-1 record and an exceptional 3.00 ERA. However, he projects to pitch only 4.7 innings today, which isn’t ideal. Hurter's groundball percentage of 55% could help mitigate the Orioles' strong offense, which leads the league with 212 home runs this season.

On the other side, Zach Eflin will take the mound for the Orioles. With a record of 10-8 and an ERA of 3.65, Eflin is the 27th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, providing the Orioles with a solid chance to keep their winning momentum going. Although Eflin has struggled with hits allowed, he also throws strikes effectively, which may play to his advantage against a Tigers lineup that draws walks less frequently.

The projections suggest a close contest, with the Tigers possibly offering value as underdogs given their projected score of 4.10 runs compared to the Orioles' 4.39 runs. As the odds show Baltimore favored at -145, this matchup could hinge on both pitchers' performances and the ability of the Tigers' underwhelming offense to capitalize on any mistakes made by Eflin.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Zach Eflin has averaged 17.8 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Adley Rutschman's average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 88.1-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 81.5-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Baltimore Orioles have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Brant Hurter in today's game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.175) provides evidence that Spencer Torkelson has had positive variance on his side this year with his .211 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Parker Meadows hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 63 games (+16.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 52 away games (+14.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games at home (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.51 vs Detroit Tigers 4.13

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