Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies Pick For 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on August 30, 2024, the stakes are low for the Rockies, who sit at 50-85 and have been struggling throughout the season. Meanwhile, the Orioles, boasting a strong 77-57 record, are looking to solidify their position as contenders. The matchup marks the first game of the series, and it's clear that the Orioles enter as the favorites, having recently showcased their offensive prowess.

The Rockies will send Austin Gomber to the mound, who has had a challenging season with a 4-9 record and an ERA of 4.70. Although Gomber has been a low-walk pitcher with a 6.0 BB%, he will face an Orioles lineup that is adept at avoiding walks, ranking 6th least in the league. This could spell trouble for Gomber, especially given that he projects to allow 3.5 earned runs and 6.4 hits over an average of 4.7 innings, which is less than ideal.

On the other side, the Orioles will counter with Albert Suarez, who has been a reliable option with a 6-4 record and an impressive 3.18 ERA. While Suarez's 4.57 xFIP suggests he may not sustain his current success, he still presents a tougher challenge for a Rockies offense that ranks 18th overall in MLB. The Rockies have been particularly prone to strikeouts, ranking 3rd most in the league, which could work to Suarez's advantage as he seeks to capitalize on their weaknesses.

With a projected game total of 11.0 runs, bettors should keep an eye on the Rockies' high implied team total of 4.90 runs, which indicates some potential for offensive output despite their overall struggles. The Orioles, with an implied total of 6.10 runs, are expected to continue their strong performance. This matchup offers an intriguing contrast between a struggling Rockies squad and a potent Orioles lineup looking to make a statement.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Albert Suarez is projected to throw 84 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least of the day.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber has gone to his curveball 5.5% more often this year (22.3%) than he did last year (16.8%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.279) may lead us to conclude that Ezequiel Tovar has been very fortunate this year with his .325 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Colorado Rockies offense projects for the 2nd-most runs of all teams today, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 46 away games (+16.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+17.85 Units / 35% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 6.62 vs Colorado Rockies 5.89

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