Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians Prediction For 8/3/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles
  • Joey Cantillo - Guardians

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on August 3, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League showdown. Both teams boast impressive records—Cleveland at 66-42 and Baltimore at 65-45—indicating they are among the top contenders this season. The Guardians are currently riding a wave of success, while the Orioles look to bounce back after a tough loss in their last game.

On the mound, Cleveland's Joey Cantillo is projected to start, but he has struggled this season, posting an ERA of 8.10 in just one start. However, advanced projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 5.86 is significantly lower than his ERA. Cantillo's high groundball rate could play to his advantage against a powerful Orioles lineup that leads MLB with 157 home runs. His ability to induce ground balls may help neutralize Baltimore's power-hitting approach.

Conversely, Zach Eflin of the Orioles brings a more seasoned presence to the mound with 20 starts this season and an ERA of 4.11. Though Eflin is considered a good pitcher, his low strikeout rate could be a concern against a Guardians offense that ranks 14th in MLB this year. The Guardians are not known for striking out often, which could tilt the matchup in their favor.

Cleveland's offense has been average this season, but Jose Ramirez has been red-hot, leading the team with a .471 batting average over the last week. His performance will be crucial as the Guardians seek to exploit Eflin's weaknesses.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, betting markets suggest this could be a close encounter, with the Guardians holding a +110 moneyline. Given the advanced projections, they may be undervalued in this matchup, especially if Cantillo can harness his groundball tendencies effectively.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Zach Eflin has relied on his curveball 8.5% less often this season (18%) than he did last season (26.5%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Gunnar Henderson has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 12.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among every team today, the best infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

David Fry's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 88.6-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 81.2-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 45 games at home (+15.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 58 of their last 111 games (+11.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+20.55 Units / 24% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.44 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.46

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