Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On May 24, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will face off against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, currently having a terrible season with a record of 15-36, will be playing as the home team. The Orioles, on the other hand, are having a great season with a record of 30-18 and will be the away team.

The pitching matchup for this American League showdown will feature Chris Flexen on the mound for the White Sox and Corbin Burnes for the Orioles. Flexen, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled this season and is ranked as one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Burnes, on the other hand, is having an excellent season and is ranked as one of the best starting pitchers in MLB.

This game is the second in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Orioles emerged victorious with an 8-6 win over the White Sox. The Orioles were the favorites to win, with a higher implied win probability and a lower Moneyline price. In contrast, the White Sox were considered underdogs.

Flexen has started 8 games this year and has a win/loss record of 2-4 with an ERA of 5.48. However, his 4.59 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Burnes has started 10 games with a record of 4-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.56. Although his SIERA and FIP indicate that he may have been lucky, his overall performance has been great.

In terms of offense, the Orioles have been performing well this season, ranking as the 8th best in MLB. They have a balanced attack, ranking 14th in team batting average and 17th in both home runs and stolen bases. The White Sox, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking as the worst team in MLB. They rank 22nd in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are the clear favorites to win this game. However, THE BAT X projects the White Sox to have a higher win probability than the betting market suggests, indicating potential value in betting on the underdog. The White Sox have a low implied team total of 3.13 runs, while the Orioles have a high implied team total of 4.87 runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ryan Mountcastle has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (95% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 5th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Tallying 14.2 outs per game per started this year on average, Chris Flexen falls in the 17th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Andrew Vaughn's footspeed has improved this year. His 25.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.26 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+3.70 Units / 7% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.12 vs Chicago White Sox 3.54

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