Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox Prediction For 5/23/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 23, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles
  • Mike Clevinger - White Sox

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On May 23, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will face off against the Baltimore Orioles at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, currently with a record of 15-35, are having a tough season, while the Orioles boast an impressive record of 29-18.

The White Sox, the home team for this matchup, will send right-handed pitcher Mike Clevinger to the mound. Clevinger has started three games this year with a win-loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 5.56. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Clevinger is ranked as the #162 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. This suggests that he has struggled this season and may face challenges going forward.

Opposing Clevinger will be Grayson Rodriguez of the Orioles. Rodriguez, also a right-handed pitcher, has started seven games this year and holds a win-loss record of 4-1 with an impressive ERA of 3.15. In our Power Rankings, Rodriguez is ranked as the #48 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating a strong performance so far.

In terms of offensive strength, the White Sox currently rank last in the league, with the #30 spot in MLB for team offense. They also rank #22 in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. On the other hand, the Orioles have a strong offense, ranking #7 overall in MLB and #14 in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

Considering the projected performance of both teams, the Orioles are the clear favorites, with a higher implied win probability of 68% based on the current odds. The White Sox, with a current moneyline of +200, are considered underdogs with an implied win probability of 32%.

It's worth noting that the Orioles have a strong bullpen, ranking #24 in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the White Sox rank even lower at #25. This could have an impact on the outcome of the game if it comes down to late-inning relief performances.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grayson Rodriguez is projected to average 16.9 outs today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Typically, batters like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Mike Clevinger.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 3rd-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Mike Clevinger has gone to his secondary pitches 9.2% more often this year (59%) than he did last season (49.8%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Paul DeJong has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.75 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• Jorge Mateo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 48% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.04 vs Chicago White Sox 3.55

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