Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Pick For 4/11/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Overview

• Date: April 11, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles
  • Garrett Whitlock - Red Sox
• Run Line: Orioles -1.5 140, Red Sox 1.5 -160
• Money Line: Orioles -120, Red Sox 100
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -120

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 52%
• Boston Red Sox - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 52.44%
• Boston Red Sox - 47.56%

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

The Boston Red Sox are set to host the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park on April 11, 2024, in an American League East matchup. Both teams have been performing well this season, with the Red Sox boasting a 7-5 record and the Orioles right behind them at 7-4.

On the mound, the Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Garrett Whitlock. Despite being ranked as the #58 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Whitlock has been having a great season with a 1-0 record and an impressive 0.96 ERA. However, his peripheral indicator, the xFIP, suggests that he may not maintain this level of performance going forward.

The Orioles are countering with their own talented right-handed pitcher, Grayson Rodriguez. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Rodriguez is ranked as the #29 best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started two games this season, boasting a 2-0 record and a 2.19 ERA. Similar to Whitlock, Rodriguez's xFIP indicates that his performance may regress in future outings.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Red Sox have been solid this season, ranking as the #17 best offense in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league, but are average in home runs and stolen bases. On the other hand, the Orioles' offense ranks lower at #21, with an average batting average and home run ranking.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Red Sox are considered to have the #13 best bullpen in MLB, while the Orioles trail slightly behind at #17. This indicates that both teams have average bullpen talent.

Overall, the Red Sox have an implied win probability of 48% based on their current moneyline, while the Orioles have a 52% implied win probability. This suggests that the game is expected to be closely contested.

In the past week, the Red Sox's best hitter has been Tyler O'Neill, who has recorded six hits, seven runs, five RBIs, and four home runs with a batting average of .353 and an OPS of 1.559. Meanwhile, the Orioles' best hitter has been Ryan O'Hearn, who has five hits, one home run, a batting average of .417, and an OPS of 1.367 over the same period.

With a Game Total of 8.5 runs, the projections from THE BAT X indicate a very low average score for both teams. However, it's important to note that these are just projections and the actual game outcome may differ.

In this highly anticipated AL East matchup, the Red Sox and Orioles will look to continue their strong seasons. With talented pitchers on both sides and a close implied win probability, it promises to be an exciting game for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

With 7 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Grayson Rodriguez meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Cedric Mullins II is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Adley Rutschman, the Orioles's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Baltimore's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Masataka Yoshida, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 96 of their last 155 games (+32.20 Units / 16% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles 4.81 vs Boston Red Sox 4.3

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