Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/6/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: June 6, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Washington Nationals will host the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park on June 6, 2024. The Nationals, with a disappointing 27-34 record this season, are having a tough year. On the other hand, the Braves are enjoying a great season with a 34-25 record.

The Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Mitchell Parker, who has a 4-3 win/loss record and a 3.60 ERA this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Parker is ranked #146 out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him below average. In contrast, the Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, who boasts a 3-2 win/loss record and an impressive 1.73 ERA. Lopez is ranked #71 in our Power Rankings, indicating that he is above average.

Looking at the offensive rankings, the Nationals have struggled this season, ranking as the #27 best offense in MLB. However, they have shown strength in team batting average, ranking #6 in the league. Unfortunately, their power has been lacking, as they rank #29 in team home runs. In terms of stolen bases, they sit at an average ranking of #14.

On the other hand, the Braves have been impressive offensively, ranking as the #7 best offense in MLB. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, showcasing their power. They also hold a solid #7 ranking in stolen bases.

When it comes to the pitching staff, the Nationals' bullpen is ranked #26 in MLB, while the Braves' bullpen is ranked #10. This suggests that the Braves have an advantage in the late innings of the game.

In terms of the betting odds, the Nationals are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +155, giving them an implied win probability of 38%. The Braves, as the favorites, have a moneyline of -175 and an implied win probability of 62%.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Adam Duvall has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (93% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Matt Olson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jacob Young's footspeed has decreased this season. His 30 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.49 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Washington Nationals projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-weakest on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games (+10.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 55 games (+16.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 45 games (+19.00 Units / 30% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.72 vs Washington Nationals 4.65

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