Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Picks 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves visit Nationals Park for the second game of their series against the Washington Nationals on September 11, 2024, the stakes remain high for the Braves, who are in contention for the postseason. The Braves currently hold a record of 79-66, while the Nationals are struggling with a 64-80 mark this season. In their previous matchup, the Braves dominated the Nationals, winning decisively 12-0.

On the mound, the Nationals are set to start Jake Irvin, who has struggled this season, ranking as the 187th best starting pitcher in MLB. Irvin is coming off a rough outing where he allowed 6 earned runs in just 5 innings. His projections indicate he may pitch around 5.4 innings, giving up roughly 2.7 earned runs, which could be problematic against a potent Braves offense that ranks 5th in home runs.

Max Fried takes the hill for the Braves, boasting a stellar season with a 3.35 ERA and ranking 5th among MLB starting pitchers. Fried is coming off a solid performance, where he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs. His ability to keep the ball on the ground against a Nationals offense that ranks 29th in home runs bodes well for the Braves.

Despite the Nationals’ rankings showing a decent batting average, their overall offensive capabilities have faltered this season. Meanwhile, projections suggest that the Braves will score an average of 4.72 runs, while the Nationals may struggle to reach 3.13 runs. Given the current odds, the Braves are favored with a moneyline of -165, indicating a strong likelihood of victory. With the Braves looking to capitalize on their recent momentum, they may find success against a beleaguered Nationals squad struggling to find their footing.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Sean Murphy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (84% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games at home (+5.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 118 games (+26.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+15.25 Units / 48% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.72 vs Washington Nationals 3.13

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.