Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 5/22/2025

The Washington Nationals will host the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park on May 22, 2025, in a matchup that holds significance as both teams navigate a challenging season. The Nationals sit at 22-27, struggling to find momentum, while the Braves are slightly better at 24-24, but both teams are looking to break out of their respective ruts. These teams were rained out on Wednesday and will get back at it today.

Starting for the Nationals is Trevor Williams, who has had a rough season with a Win/Loss record of 2-5 and a troubling ERA of 5.91. While advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some positive regression, allowing 5.1 hits and 1.5 walks on average does not inspire confidence. On the other side, the Braves will counter with AJ Smith-Shawver, who boasts a stellar ERA of 2.33, even if his underlying numbers suggest he may be overperforming. Smith-Shawver's ability to strike out 4.6 batters per game will be vital, especially against a Nationals lineup that has been average at best this season.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 15th in MLB, featuring a well-rounded attack but lacking the explosive power needed to consistently drive in runs. In contrast, the Braves rank 14th in MLB, and while their hitters have shown flashes of brilliance, they rank 21st in team stolen bases, indicating a need for more aggressive baserunning.

With a Game Total of 8.5 runs, oddsmakers have made the Nationals underdogs, but they may have a chance to exceed expectations given their offensive potential and the projections indicating a more favorable matchup against a young pitcher. Betters should keep a close eye on this game as it unfolds.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Because flyball hitters have a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, AJ Smith-Shawver and his 37.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in today's outing going up against 6 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt Olson has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Atlanta Braves bats collectively rank near the top of baseball this year (6th-) as far as their 90.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams has experienced some negative variance in regards to his ERA this year; his 5.91 figure is a fair amount higher than his 3.88 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Extreme flyball batters like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like AJ Smith-Shawver.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.99 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.10 Units / 41% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.95, Washington Nationals 4.58

• Date: May 22, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • AJ Smith-Shawver - Braves
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals

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