Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 5/21/2025

On May 21, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park in a pivotal National League East matchup. The Nationals won the last game of the series and are looking to build momentum, though the Nats are struggling this season with a record of 22-27. The Nationals have been particularly cold, sitting at five games under .500, while the Braves are at a more average 24-24.

Starting for the Nationals is Trevor Williams, who has had a rough season thus far, posting a Win/Loss record of 2-5 and a concerning ERA of 5.91 across 9 starts. While Williams ranks as the 213th best starting pitcher in MLB, his 4.03 xFIP suggests he may have experienced some bad luck leading to his high ERA. He projects to pitch about 5.1 innings, allowing roughly 2.6 earned runs, but with an average of 5 hits allowed and 1.5 walks, this could pose problems.

Facing Williams will be AJ Smith-Shawver, who has enjoyed a better season, with a record of 3-2 and an impressive 2.33 ERA in 7 starts. Despite being one of the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced metrics, Smith-Shawver's projections suggest he’ll also pitch around 5.1 innings and allow about 2.6 earned runs but with a slightly higher projected walks rate of 2.0.

At the plate, the Nationals rank 15th in MLB for offense and have a solid but inconsistent lineup. Despite the Braves having the upper hand on paper and being favored with a moneyline of -155, the projections hint that the Nationals might have the ability to surprise, particularly if Williams can harness some of that expected luck to turn things around. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a generally balanced matchup, and with a strong performance from their key hitters, the Nationals could keep it close.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

AJ Smith-Shawver has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball hitters like Ozzie Albies are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Trevor Williams.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.4% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams's fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this year (86.9 mph) below where it was last season (88.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Josh Bell is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 99% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Washington Nationals have been the 9th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.35 Units / 87% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 48 games (+6.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.15 Units / 36% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.84, Washington Nationals 4.5

• Date: May 21, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • AJ Smith-Shawver - Braves
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.