Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 4/11/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on April 11, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling early in the season, with the Rays holding a record of 5-7 and the Braves at 3-9. Despite their rocky start, the Rays' advanced-stat Power Rankings place their bullpen as the 6th best in MLB, providing them with an edge when it comes to late-game situations. The Braves, on the other hand, have been lackluster overall, ranking 22nd in MLB and showing particular weaknesses in power and speed.

In this Interleague matchup, the Rays are projected to start Taj Bradley, who is ranked 60th among MLB starters according to the leading MLB projection system. Bradley has had a decent start to the season, holding a 1-0 record with a 4.91 ERA. However, his 3.22 xFIP indicates he might be due for better results. He’ll be facing Braves pitcher Bryce Elder, who has struggled early in the year with a disappointing 6.75 ERA. The projections suggest both pitchers are expected to pitch around 5 innings, but Elder's low strikeout rate of 17.7% could work in the Rays' favor, as they rank 4th in MLB for the fewest strikeouts.

The Rays’ offense is characterized by a strong batting average, ranking 9th in MLB, but they are hindered by a lack of power, sitting at 23rd in home runs. Conversely, the Braves' offense is facing difficulties, ranking 25th in home runs and last in stolen bases, which signals a struggling offensive lineup. With both teams competing for a much-needed win, the Rays are favored slightly at -120, reflecting a close matchup where they may have the upper hand due to their pitching depth and overall bullpen strength. As both teams seek to turn their seasons around, this game could be pivotal for momentum going forward.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder's 90.4-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 9th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Matt Olson has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95-mph average to last year's 91.3-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball hitters like Danny Jansen usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryce Elder.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Elder - Braves
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

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