Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Picks 6/25/2024

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Atlanta Braves on June 25, 2024, at Busch Stadium for the second game of their series. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Cardinals standing at 40-37 and the Braves at 43-33. The Cardinals edged out the Braves 4-3 yesterday, setting the stage for another tight contest today. In that game, the Cardinals were slight underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +105, while the Braves were favored at -125.

On the mound, the Cardinals will start Kyle Gibson, who has had a mixed season. Despite his 5-2 record and a commendable 3.44 ERA, his peripherals indicate some luck, evidenced by his 3.94 xFIP. Gibson is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.3 batters, and giving up 5.3 hits and 1.5 walks. This performance will be crucial against an Atlanta offense that ranks as the 12th best in MLB, with solid average rankings in batting average (.257, 14th) and home runs (13th).

Reynaldo Lopez will get the start for the Braves. Lopez has been stellar this year with an eye-popping 1.57 ERA, although his 3.52 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. Lopez is projected to pitch 5.0 innings as well, allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out 5.2 batters, and conceding 4.7 hits and 1.7 walks. He’ll be facing a Cardinals offense that has been less impressive, ranking 20th overall with middling stats across batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

The Braves are favored with a Moneyline of -135, reflecting an implied win probability of 55%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Braves to have a 54% win probability, closely aligning with the betting markets. This indicates a slight edge for Atlanta, bolstered by their stronger offensive metrics and a more reliable bullpen, ranked 8th best by advanced-stat Power Rankings.

However, the Cardinals' recent win and the hot bat of Brendan Donovan, who has hit .480 with a 1.400 OPS over the last week, could prove pivotal. Donovan's timely hitting might just tilt the scales in what promises to be another closely contested game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The St. Louis Cardinals have 6 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Reynaldo Lopez in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball bats like Ozzie Albies usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Gibson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Brendan Donovan is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in their last 7 games at home (+8.60 Units / 94% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 64 games (+22.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 45 games (+12.55 Units / 28% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.91 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.24

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