Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks 8/14/2024

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Robbie Ray - Giants

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on August 14, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race in the National League. The Giants currently sit at 61-60, while the Braves are slightly ahead with a record of 63-56. This matchup is crucial, especially as the Giants look to gain ground in the standings. The Braves are coming off a solid performance, having won their last game in extra innings, while the Giants are hoping to bounce back after a disappointing outing.

On the mound, the Giants will send out Robbie Ray, who has had an up-and-down season but is still ranked as the 88th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Ray boasts a respectable 3.98 ERA this year, supported by a 3.39 SIERA that suggests he has been somewhat unlucky. His ability to strike out batters—projected at 6.3 strikeouts today—could be a key factor against a Braves lineup that tends to be less patient at the plate, ranking 5th in the league for the fewest walks drawn.

Opposing him is Grant Holmes, who has struggled to find consistency this season. Although he has a solid 3.79 ERA, his overall performance has been lackluster, and advanced stats indicate he may be due for regression. With both pitchers projected to allow around 2.5 earned runs, the game total is set low at 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tightly contested matchup.

Offensively, the Giants rank 14th in MLB, while the Braves are slightly better at 13th. However, the Giants' power numbers have been concerning, as they rank 23rd in home runs. In contrast, the Braves boast a 10th place ranking in that category, making their lineup a more potent threat.

With both teams having strong bullpens—ranked 1st and 9th respectively—this game could very well come down to which starter can limit damage early on. Bettors should keep an eye on the Giants’ ability to capitalize on their home-field advantage and Ray's strikeout potential against a Braves offense that might struggle to take walks.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Grant Holmes must realize this, because he has gone to his secondary offerings a lot since the start of last season: 63.5% of the time, placing in the 91st percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Whit Merrifield's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 85.1-mph mark last year has fallen to 82.9-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Atlanta Braves offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

In his previous start, Robbie Ray was on point and posted 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Despite posting a .409 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tyler Fitzgerald has been very fortunate given the .106 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .303.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+7.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 93 games (+18.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+12.60 Units / 30% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.35 vs San Francisco Giants 4.36

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