Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 6/6/2025

On June 6, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Atlanta Braves at Oracle Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Giants are having a solid season with a record of 35-28, while the Braves find themselves struggling at 27-34. This National League matchup could be significant for both teams as they look to gain momentum, especially with the Giants' impressive bullpen ranking as the 1st best in MLB, compared to the Braves' 20th place rank.

In their previous outing, the Braves were unable to find their rhythm, resulting in a disappointing performance. They will turn to right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach, who has been great this season, sporting a 4-4 record with a solid 3.13 ERA. Schwellenbach projects to pitch 5.9 innings today, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, which bodes well for Atlanta, although his tendency to allow 5.5 hits could prove costly.

On the other side, the Giants will rely on Hayden Birdsong, who is looking to build on a mixed season. While Birdsong's 2.37 ERA is impressive, his 3.74 xFIP suggests that he might have been a bit fortunate thus far. He projects to pitch only 4.6 innings today, which is concerning, especially given that he allows an average of 4.4 hits and 2.0 walks per outing.

Offensively, the Giants have struggled, ranking 25th in batting average and 25th in overall offensive production. In contrast, the Braves sit in a more favorable 17th place offensively, giving them an edge in this matchup. Betting markets reflect this sentiment, with the Braves' moneyline set at -135, indicating a 55% implied win probability. However, the Giants may prove to be a tough opponent, especially if their bullpen continues its dominance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (43.2 vs. 35.9% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball hitters like Ozzie Albies usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Hayden Birdsong.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (39.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong's fastball spin rate has spiked 127 rpm this season (2418 rpm) over where it was last season (2291 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Daniel Johnson is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Projected catcher Patrick Bailey profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+15.40 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
• Nick Allen has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.95 Units / 36% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.8, San Francisco Giants 3.74

• Date: June 6, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants

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