Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick & Preview – 8/13/2024

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants will host the Atlanta Braves at Oracle Park on August 13, 2024, in what is sure to be an engaging National League matchup. Both teams are in a competitive stretch; the Giants hold a record of 61-59 this season, while the Braves boast a slightly better 61-56 mark. The Giants are having an average season, while the Braves are performing above par.

In their last outing, the Braves achieved a notable 1-0 win in 10 innings, but the Giants will aim to bounce back as they are still searching for consistency. Kyle Harrison, projected to start for the Giants, has struggled with his performance despite a decent ERA of 4.08. Nevertheless, his xERA of 4.71 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate, hinting at possible regression.

On the flip side, Charlie Morton will take the mound for the Braves. Morton’s current season stats showcase him as an average pitcher with a 4.47 ERA and a record of 6-7. He projects to pitch more innings than Harrison, with average innings pitched at 5.4, which could be crucial in a tightly contested game where every out matters.

Offensively, both teams rank around the middle of the pack in MLB. The Giants' offensive capabilities are reflected in their 14th-best ranking, while the Braves sit at 13th. Notably, the Braves excel in home runs, ranking 10th, which could provide them a critical edge in this matchup.

The betting market currently reflects a closely matched game with both teams at -110 on the moneyline. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, this appears to be a high-stakes contest where the Giants could surprise with a strong performance, despite recent struggles.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton's fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (93.2 mph) below where it was last year (94.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Orlando Arcia is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be best to expect better results for the Atlanta Braves offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Kyle Harrison is projected to record an average of 14.9 outs in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Matt Chapman has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 92.9-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 52 games at home (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 104 games (+26.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+8.05 Units / 89% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.58 vs San Francisco Giants 4.42

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