Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/12/2024

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres gear up to host the Atlanta Braves on July 12, 2024, at Petco Park, both teams find themselves in interesting positions. The Padres, with a 49-47 record, are having an average season, while the Braves, at 51-41, are enjoying a good one. This National League matchup marks the first game of the series between these two teams.

On the mound for the Padres is Randy Vasquez, a right-hander who has struggled this season. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Vasquez ranks as the 286th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. With a 4.66 ERA and a 2-4 record in 12 starts, his 6.33 xERA suggests he's been fortunate so far and might regress. Vasquez projects to allow 2.8 earned runs and 5.1 hits over 5.0 innings, which isn't promising against a capable Braves lineup.

The Braves counter with Spencer Schwellenbach, another right-hander, ranked 57th among MLB starters. Despite a 5.02 ERA and a matching 2-4 record in 7 starts, Schwellenbach's 3.63 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky and should see improvement. He projects to allow 2.4 earned runs and 5.1 hits over 5.1 innings.

Offensively, the Padres boast the 11th best lineup in MLB, highlighted by their #2 team batting average and 8th ranking in home runs. Jake Cronenworth has been their standout hitter over the last week, batting .316 with a .883 OPS, including a home run in his last five games. Conversely, the Braves' offense ranks 13th, with Austin Riley hitting .318 with a 1.150 OPS and two home runs over the past week.

Both bullpens are solid, with the Padres ranked 11th and the Braves 6th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. Betting markets see this as a close game, with the Padres at +100 and the Braves at -120. The implied team totals are 4.15 for the Padres and 4.35 for the Braves, suggesting a slight edge for Atlanta.

With the Padres' average season and Vasquez's struggles, the Braves appear to have a slight advantage in this matchup, especially if Schwellenbach can capitalize on his underlying metrics and deliver a strong performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.5-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Generating 14.5 outs per outing this year on average, Randy Vasquez places him the 15th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jurickson Profar has been lucky this year, notching a .385 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .316 — a .069 gap.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Kyle Higashioka, the Padres's expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.80 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+15.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+11.45 Units / 44% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.85 vs San Diego Padres 4.38

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