Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 5/11/2025

The Atlanta Braves visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 11, 2025, for the third game of their series. The Braves have been playing well recently, while the Pirates continue to struggle, sitting at 13-27 this season. The Pirates are coming off a disappointing loss, as their offense failed to capitalize on opportunities, and they remain one of the lowest-ranked teams in the league.

Pittsburgh will send Carmen Mlodzinski to the mound, who has had a rough season with a 1-3 record and an alarming ERA of 6.16. While his 4.04 xFIP suggests he may be due for better results, the projections indicate that he will likely pitch only 4.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. Mlodzinski's struggles could be exacerbated by facing a potent Braves lineup.

On the other hand, Atlanta counters with Chris Sale, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 10th best in MLB. Sale has also been unlucky, with a 4.07 ERA and a solid 3.15 xFIP. He is projected to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing just 2.1 earned runs while striking out 8.3 batters on average. This matchup heavily favors Sale, especially against a Pirates offense that ranks 29th overall and has hit only 28 home runs this season.

With the Braves boasting a higher implied team total of 4.93 runs compared to the Pirates' low 3.57, it’s clear that Atlanta enters this game as the favorite. Given the disparity in starting pitching and offensive performance, the Braves are well-positioned to take control of this matchup.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale's 93.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1-mph decrease from last year's 94.9-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Matt Olson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last year's 91.3-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's matchup, Drake Baldwin is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.1% rate (86th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to the average pitcher, Carmen Mlodzinski has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -11.9 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Extreme flyball bats like Tommy Pham are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Sale.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Gorski, Joey Bart, Alexander Canario).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+7.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.20 Units / 31% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.15, Pittsburgh Pirates 3.59

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Carmen Mlodzinski - Pirates

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