Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 Prediction – 5/29/2025

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will face off in the first game of their doubleheader on Thursday afternoon in Philadelphia. This game is important not just because of the implications it has in the NL East standings. It is also vital that both teams set themselves up well for the second game of the twin-bill later in the day, making starting pitching and bullpen use a focal point.

Atlanta is set to start this game with AJ Smith-Shawver on the mound. Smith-Shawver was scheduled to face Zack Wheeler on Wednesday and gets a much more winnable matchup thanks to the postponement of his scheduled start. He enters this game at 3-2, with a 3.67 ERA, though he is coming off of a performance where he allowed seven earned runs in three innings of work against the Washington Nationals and will need to be better than that today.

Philadelphia will counter with Cristopher Sanchez, who is 4-1 on the year with a 3.17 ERA. Sanchez has not taken a loss in over a month and has given up three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his starts this year. That one poor outing came against the LA Dodgers, who have one of the best lineups in the recent history of the sport. Another solid outing from Sanchez would be huge for a Phillies team looking to save its bullpen for Game 2.

Philadelphia is a bigger favorite going into Game 1 of this doubleheader than they are in Game 2. The Phillies are at around -150 to win the opening game of the day, while the total for the game stands at 8.5 runs. That is a run higher than the Game 2 total, where a pitching duel between Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler is expected.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Ozzie Albies has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Marcell Ozuna pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Notching 3 HRs over the last 7 days, Trea Turner has been on fire of late.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The 4th-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.70, Philadelphia Phillies 5.01

• Date: May 29, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • AJ Smith-Shawver - Braves
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

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