Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 5/28/2025

On May 28, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies, currently riding high with a 35-19 record, will host the Atlanta Braves, who sit at 25-28, in a critical National League East matchup. The Phillies are enjoying a strong season, while the Braves are struggling to find their footing. In their recent encounter, the Phillies emerged victorious, showcasing their potent offense.

The projected starters for this game feature Zack Wheeler for the Phillies, who has been a standout pitcher this season with a stellar 2.42 ERA and a 6-1 win-loss record over 11 starts. Wheeler ranks as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating his elite status. He’s expected to pitch about 5.9 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs on average, which bodes well for the Phillies as they face a struggling Braves lineup.

In contrast, AJ Smith-Shawver will take the mound for the Braves. With a 3-2 record and a 3.67 ERA, he has been less effective, and projections suggest he may struggle against the Phillies’ potent offense. His high walk rate (10.6 BB%) could be problematic, especially against a Philadelphia team that ranks 5th in MLB for drawing walks.

The Phillies' offense ranks as the 5th best in MLB, excelling particularly in batting average, where they sit 4th overall. Meanwhile, the Braves' offense is average at best, ranking 13th in MLB, and their recent performance suggests they could have difficulty against a pitcher of Wheeler's caliber.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs and the Phillies favored at -160, the betting landscape favors Philadelphia, indicating an expectation for a solid performance against Atlanta.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

AJ Smith-Shawver has been lucky this year, posting a 3.67 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.89 — a 1.22 disparity.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Matt Olson has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last year's 91.3-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 2nd-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Atlanta Braves.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Among every team on the slate today, the worst outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (26.4) provides evidence that Kyle Schwarber has had positive variance on his side this year with his 45.8 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 30 games (+10.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.50 Units / 32% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.19, Philadelphia Phillies 5.1

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • AJ Smith-Shawver - Braves
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

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