Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees Prediction & Picks 6/21/2024

Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on June 21, 2024, fans will be treated to an intriguing interleague matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, sporting a strong 51-26 record, are having a fantastic season and currently hold one of the top spots in the league. The Braves, though not as dominant, have a solid 41-31 record and are very much in the playoff hunt.

New York's Carlos Rodon, the 53rd-best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, will take the mound. With a 9-3 Win/Loss record, a 3.28 ERA, and a 4.31 xFIP, Rodon has had his share of luck this season and could face challenges from an Atlanta offense that is ranked 13th in MLB. Rodon has been relatively effective, striking out 6.8 batters per game, but his projections suggest he may allow more hits and walks than desirable.

On the other side, Atlanta will counter with Chris Sale, who ranks as the 8th-best starting pitcher. Sale's 9-2 Win/Loss record, coupled with an excellent 2.98 ERA and an even better 2.35 FIP, indicates he's been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better moving forward. Sale projects to allow 2.4 earned runs and strike out 7.2 batters on average today, which is great news for the Braves.

Offensively, the Yankees hold significant advantages. Their lineup is ranked 2nd in MLB, boasting the 7th-best team batting average and the 2nd-most home runs. However, they struggle in the speed department, ranking 26th in stolen bases. Aaron Judge has been on fire recently, hitting .375 with a 1.286 OPS over the last week.

Meanwhile, the Braves' offense, ranking middle-of-the-pack at 13th, has seen Austin Riley sizzle with a .526 batting average and a 1.801 OPS over the past seven games. Despite their solid hitting, Atlanta ranks 28th in stolen bases this season.

Both teams feature contrasting bullpen strengths: the Yankees' bullpen sits at 21st in the Power Rankings, while the Braves' bullpen ranks 5th. This could prove pivotal in a close contest, with both teams projected to score around 4.25 runs.

The betting markets see this as an evenly matched game, with both teams' moneylines set at -110. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Braves a slight edge, projecting them to score 4.74 runs on average compared to the Yankees' 4.41. This suggests a slight value on the Braves, despite the close odds. Expect a compelling clash with plenty at stake for both teams.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale's four-seamer percentage has fallen by 5.2% from last year to this one (43.1% to 37.9%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Atlanta Braves have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Adam Duvall, Jarred Kelenic, Ramon Laureano).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Austin Wells has suffered from bad luck this year. His .275 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .329.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 44 games (+21.00 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 62 games (+20.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.80 Units / 56% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.74 vs New York Yankees 4.41

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