Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/27/2024

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves are set to clash on July 27, 2024, in what promises to be a significant National League East matchup at Citi Field. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Mets holding a 55-48 record and the Braves closely trailing at 54-48. This game marks the third in their series, adding extra intrigue and potential for shifts in the standings.

The Mets are projected to start Tylor Megill, who has had a mixed season so far with a 2-4 win/loss record and a 5.08 ERA. However, his 3.96 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Megill is ranked as the 113th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an average option on the mound. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Megill is expected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, striking out 6.2 batters, but also allowing 4.4 hits and 1.6 walks.

On the other side, the Braves will counter with Spencer Schwellenbach. With a 3-5 record and a 4.62 ERA, Schwellenbach’s season has been slightly better, backed by his 3.74 xFIP, indicating some bad luck as well. He’s ranked as the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB, which puts him in the good category. The projections have him pitching 5.2 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out 5.1 batters, while giving up 4.7 hits and 1.2 walks.

The Mets' offense, ranking 7th best in MLB, has been firing on all cylinders, especially in home runs where they rank 4th. Francisco Lindor has been their standout hitter over the last week, hitting .290 with five home runs and a 1.178 OPS. Meanwhile, the Braves' offense is more middle-of-the-pack, ranking 18th overall, but they have shown power with the 10th most home runs. Marcell Ozuna has been leading their charge recently, boasting a .375 average and a 1.233 OPS over the last seven games.

With the Mets currently holding a slight edge in the betting markets with a moneyline of -115, and the Braves at -105, this game is expected to be tightly contested. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring game. Both teams' bullpens will be crucial, with the Mets ranked 18th and the Braves 8th in the Power Rankings.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Despite posting a .406 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has experienced some positive variance given the .056 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .350.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill has averaged 14.6 outs per outing this year, placing in the 14th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jeff McNeil is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 60 of their last 99 games (+14.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 94 games (+24.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 35 games (+11.55 Units / 33% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 3.89 vs New York Mets 4.07

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