Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction – 8/14/2025
The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets have traded haymakers in the first two games of their three-game series this week. Both teams have a win over the first two games of the series and the winner of both games has scored over 10 runs. These NL East rivals will meet again on Thursday in the rubber match of their series from Queens. Before the game begins, continue reading to get my Braves vs Mets prediction.
Our Braves vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Mets -1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 14, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Bryce Elder (ATL) vs Kodai Senga (NYM)
- Stadium: Citi Field, Flushing, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: SNY, FDSSO
Key Storylines
- Pitching matchup: Kodai Senga has been exceptional at home this season. He has a 2.30 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 44.2 innings at Citi Field in 2025. Senga is 7-4 over all of his starts this season and is a big reason why the Mets are heavy favorites in this game. Bryce Elder has struggled on the road for the Braves. Elder has a 6.12 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP this year and his issues away from Truist Park are a big reason for that.
- Playoff Races: The Braves are well out of the playoff race at this stage of the season. But the Mets are occupying one of the three Wild Card spots in the National League. New York has to keep winning to stay in Wild Card positioning and to try and catch up to the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East standings.
- Recent team streaks: The Mets have lost four of their last five games coming into this series-ending matchup from Citi Field.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Matt Olson | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Braves lead the season series against the Mets 6-3.
- Each of the first two games of this series have gone over their totals.
- Four straight Braves games have gone over their totals dating back to their last series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Braves vs Mets Model Projection
- Score Projection: Braves 4 – Mets 6
- Win Probability: Braves 38%, Mets 62%
Final Thoughts
I don’t think it is going to take double-digits on the scoreboard to win this rubber match between the Braves and Mets. Instead, I think that Kodai Senga gives the Mets a huge edge at home going into this one. I recommend laying the runline with the Mets as Senga should shut down the inconsistent Braves offense while keeping pressure on the Phillies in the NL East race.
