Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction – 8/12/2025
NL East rivals will cross paths in Queens as the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets open a three-game series at Citi Field. New York is still in the race for the NL East title but is going through a brutal cold streak. They will look to end their recent woes against one of their fiercest rivals here. Before the fun begins in New York, continue reading to get my Braves vs Mets prediction.
Our Braves vs Mets Pick
- Pick: New York Mets Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 12, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Spencer Strider vs Clay Holmes
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: SNY and FDSSO
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Spencer Strider has struggled recently and holds a middling ERA north of 4.00 for the Braves. Clay Holmes is delivering steady numbers for the Mets with a 3.46 ERA. The advantage falls to the Mets on the mound even if the numbers for these two starters aren’t terribly lopsided.
Key Players
- Mets: Juan Soto in the midst of a four-game hit streak. Pete Alonso is looking for a third consecutive game with a hit.
- Braves: Matt Olson is riding a three-game hitting streak with a home run in that span. Marcell Ozuna continues to swing a hot bat as well.
Recent Team Streaks
The Braves are 51-67 overall but won four of five games against the Miami Marlins in their last series. The Mets are 63-55 but have lost seven games in a row going into this contest.
Best Player Props
| Player | Category | Prop Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (Mets) | Hits | Over 1.5 |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Braves are leading the season series against the Mets 5-2.
- The Mets have won the last two games against the Braves after dropping the first five of the season.
- New York is 38-21 at home in 2025.
- The Braves are 21-37 in their road games.
Braves vs Mets Model Projection
- Score Projection: Mets 5 – Braves 3
- Win Probability: Mets 55%, Braves 45%
Final Thoughts
The Mets hold the upper hand in this matchup thanks to a steadier starting pitcher in Clay Holmes. Strider’s inconsistency and the Braves’ injury-riddled roster give the edge to New York. I expect a close contest, but the Mets should edge it out. I’ll take the Mets to win the game on the moneyline, but there might be some value in laying the runline with New York at plus money here.
