Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Pick – 6/26/2025

On June 26, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field in the fourth game of their season series. The Mets, currently sitting well above the .500 mark at 47-34, are enjoying a strong season and are well-positioned in the NL East. In contrast, the Braves bring a lackluster record of 37-42, reflecting their struggles so far this year.

In their last matchup, the Braves were defeated, marking a continuation of their season-long inconsistencies. Meanwhile, Griffin Canning is projected to take the mound for the Mets, boasting a solid 3.91 ERA this season. Although he's ranked as the 173rd best starting pitcher in MLB Power Rankings, indicating some potential concern for his performance, he comes off a satisfactory showing, leading to a 7-3 record in 15 starts.

Grant Holmes, hailing from the Braves’ rotation, is expected to toe the rubber as well. With a slightly better ERA of 3.71, he has maintained a more balanced performance, resulting in a 4-6 record thus far. However, both pitchers struggle with their command, as evidenced by their high walk rates—10.7% for Canning and 11.1% for Holmes—suggesting that the opposing offenses could take advantage of their control issues.

The Mets' offense, despite ranking only 20th in team batting average, is far more explosive, standing 6th in home runs with 107 on the season. This firepower could prove pivotal against Holmes, a high-groundball pitcher, who will need to navigate through New York's powerful lineup carefully. On the other hand, the Braves have found some stability in their batting, sitting at 17th in overall rankings.

With both teams averaging an implied team total of 4.25 runs and the game total set at 8.5 runs, a close contest is anticipated—especially considering Canning's and Holmes's potential to allow walks and runs. The Mets have the edge, and with their recent form, they will be looking to capitalize on home-field advantages to push their winning streak further.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to the average hurler, Grant Holmes has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 3.4 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Griffin Canning's slider percentage has increased by 7.7% from last year to this one (24% to 31.7%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Pete Alonso has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year's 89.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets projected offense profiles as the 4th-strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+8.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.20 Units / 102% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.93, New York Mets 4.66

• Date: June 26, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Griffin Canning - Mets

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