Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Pick – 6/25/2025

The New York Mets, currently holding a solid record of 46-34, are set to face off against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on June 25, 2025. The Mets are enjoying a strong season, while the Braves, at 37-41, are still trying to find their footing. The Braves have won two straight over the Mets in Queens this week and will look to continue to move closer to the .500 mark with another win here.

On the mound, the Mets are projected to start Clay Holmes, who ranks as the 44th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Holmes has had a decent season, projecting to pitch an average of 5.3 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs. However, he does have concerning projections for hits and walks, allowing 5.1 hits and 2.0 walks on average, which could be a factor against a Braves lineup that needs to capitalize on every opportunity.

Didier Fuentes will take the hill for the Braves, but his projections are far less encouraging. Fuentes is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB, with projections of 4.4 innings pitched and 2.9 earned runs allowed. His struggle to keep hitters off base, allowing 4.9 hits and 1.6 walks on average, could be a significant disadvantage against a potent Mets lineup.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs and the Mets favored with a moneyline of -150, this matchup promises to be an exciting contest, especially with the Mets looking to capitalize on their recent success.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The New York Mets have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Didier Fuentes in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Matt Olson has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Atlanta Braves projected offense grades out as the 2nd-best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

In his last outing, Clay Holmes turned in a great performance and conceded 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Extreme groundball batters like Starling Marte are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Didier Fuentes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

New York Mets hitters as a unit grade out 3rd- in the game for power this year when using their 10.6% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+7.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 77 games (+11.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.90 Units / 19% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.78, New York Mets 5.45

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Didier Fuentes - Braves
  • Clay Holmes - Mets

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