Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Pick – 6/24/2025

On June 24, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field for the second game of their series. The Mets enter this matchup with a solid 46-33 record, showcasing their status as one of the stronger teams in the National League East. Conversely, the Braves sit at 36-41, struggling to find their footing this season. In their last game, the Braves celebrated a victory over the Mets, and will look to build on that result tonight.

The pitching matchup features Frankie Montas for the Mets, who is projected to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs. However, Montas has struggled this season, ranking as the 225th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. On the other hand, Spencer Strider, projected to start for the Braves, has been one of the more effective pitchers, ranking 17th in the league. Strider has a decent ERA of 3.89 and a SIERA of 3.31, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve moving forward.

Offensively, the Mets boast the 5th best offense in MLB, with a particularly strong performance in home runs, where they rank 6th. In contrast, the Braves' offense is average at best, ranking 17th overall. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, bettors may find value in the Mets, who are currently seen as underdogs despite their stronger performance this season. The projections indicate a potential for the Mets to exceed their implied team total of 4.15 runs, especially against a struggling Braves lineup.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Out of all starting pitchers, Spencer Strider's fastball velocity of 94.8 mph ranks in the 79th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Alex Verdugo is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Atlanta Braves projected lineup grades out as the 4th-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Given that flyball hitters have a sizeable edge over groundball pitchers, Frankie Montas and his 32.5% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard position in today's matchup facing 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Juan Soto has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.7-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 10.6% Barrel% of the New York Mets grades them out as the #3 offense in the majors this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 79 games (+11.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+14.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 51% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.48, New York Mets 4.61

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Strider - Braves
  • Frankie Montas - Mets

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