Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Pick – 6/23/2025

On June 23, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Atlanta Braves in what is the first game of their matchup this season at Citi Field. The Mets sit comfortably above .500 with a record of 46-32 and are enjoying a solid campaign, while the Braves are struggling at 35-41.

The Mets will rely on right-hander Paul Blackburn, who has struggled this season, holding a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an alarming ERA of 6.92. Despite the poor results, his xFIP of 4.68 indicates he may be due for better performance if luck turns in his favor. Meanwhile, the Braves will counter with Spencer Schwellenbach, a significantly better option on the mound with a record of 5-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.26. Schwellenbach's elite ranking as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB gives him a distinct advantage over Blackburn, especially when considering his low walk rate of 4.2 BB%.

At the plate, the Mets offense ranks 5th overall in MLB, though they hold a mid-tier 17th ranking in batting average. They are capable of hitting for power, ranking 6th in home runs, which could prove problematic for the groundball-heavy Schwellenbach. In contrast, the Braves are just 17th in offensive ranking and have struggled to find their rhythm, particularly in the power department.

Currently, the projections suggest that the Mets have a team total of 4.05 runs, which may prove challenging against Schwellenbach, while the Braves have a higher implied total of 4.45 runs. However, with both teams being in need of a win, this matchup is set to be a compelling battle between a struggling pitcher and a robust lineup.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.1 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Bats such as Ozzie Albies with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Paul Blackburn who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Atlanta Braves.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Paul Blackburn has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 10.4% more often this season (77.3%) than he did last year (66.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Over the past 7 days, Francisco Lindor's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.5% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+8.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+11.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.65 Units / 24% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.48, New York Mets 4.33

• Date: June 23, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Paul Blackburn - Mets

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