Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • David Festa - Twins

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on August 28, 2024, both teams enter the matchup with identical records of 72-60, showcasing their above-average seasons. This interleague contest marks the third game of their series, adding a layer of excitement, especially after yesterday's 10-inning victory by the Braves.

On the mound, the Twins will send right-hander David Festa, who has been somewhat inconsistent this season, sporting a 5.20 ERA over eight starts. While his 3.53 xFIP suggests that he has been a bit unlucky, his projections today are less than ideal, averaging just 4.6 innings pitched and 2.2 earned runs allowed. Festa will need to tighten his performance against a Braves lineup that has been average overall but can catch fire with the right hitters.

Chris Sale, on the other hand, has established himself as a force for Atlanta this season, currently ranking 4th among MLB starters, boasting a remarkable 2.62 ERA. His projections reflect the potential for another strong outing, as he averages 5.8 innings pitched and 2.3 earned runs allowed, with an impressive 7.1 strikeouts projected.

The Twins' offense ranks 6th in MLB and is bolstered by the recent success of Matt Wallner, who has been on fire over the past week, showcasing a .381 batting average and three home runs. Meanwhile, the Braves offense is powered by Matt Olson, who also delivered solid production lately.

With the Twins currently being an underdog at +125 against a favored Braves team at -145, there's potential value here, especially given the teams' performances and Sale's recent dominance. The low game total of 7.5 runs suggests that runs may be hard to come by, making this a pivotal matchup for both teams.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale's 94.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1-mph increase from last year's 93.3-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Whit Merrifield has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be best to expect positive regression for the Atlanta Braves offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Compared to league average, David Festa has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing an -11.6 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

In comparison to his 91.9-mph average last year, Matt Wallner's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Minnesota Twins batters as a group rank near the cellar of MLB this year (25th- overall) in regard to their 90.9-mph average exit velocity on the top 5% of their hardest-hit balls.

• Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter's best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+12.90 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 101 games (+20.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games (+13.80 Units / 34% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.39 vs Minnesota Twins 3.65

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