Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/30/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Elder - Braves
  • Undecided - Brewers

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

With both teams in the thick of the National League playoff race, the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves square off again on July 30, 2024, at American Family Field. The Brewers are having a great season, boasting a 61-45 record, while the Braves are also performing well with a 56-49 record. This matchup features Atlanta's Bryce Elder on the mound, while the Brewers have yet to decide on a starting pitcher just yet.

Bryce Elder, the right-hander for the Braves, has struggled significantly, evidenced by his 6.35 ERA and a 1-4 Win/Loss record this season. His Expected FIP (xFIP) of 4.23 indicates he's also been unlucky and could see improvement. Elder is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 4.7 batters, and conceding 5.5 hits with 1.7 walks – metrics that highlight his challenges this season.

Offensively, Milwaukee holds the edge, ranking 10th in MLB according to underlying talent, excelling particularly in team batting average (5th) and stolen bases (2nd). Meanwhile, Atlanta's offense is average, ranking 15th overall and 17th in team batting average but showing decent power with the 10th most home runs. However, the Braves lag significantly in stolen bases, ranking 28th.

Bullpen performance could also sway the game, with Atlanta's relievers ranked 5th, whereas Milwaukee's bullpen sits at an average 18th. This could be a pivotal factor, especially in a close game as projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which gives Milwaukee a slight edge with a 51% win probability.

In their last game, the Brewers leaned heavily on Jackson Chourio, who has been on fire over the past week, batting .450 with a 1.250 OPS. For the Braves, Orlando Arcia similarly impressed, hitting .389 with a 1.222 OPS over the same period. As both team's offenses bring their recent hot streaks into this matchup, fans can expect a high-scoring duel with Milwaukee holding a slight edge in this crucial National League clash.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder's higher usage rate of his fastball this year (56 compared to 51% last year) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

This season, Marcell Ozuna has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.7 mph compared to last year's 96.5 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Today’s version of the Braves projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .319 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .332 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jake Bauers is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Atlanta (#1-worst of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games at home (+10.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 91 games (+27.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.55 Units / 34% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.82 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.75

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