Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Darren McCaughan - Marlins

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Atlanta Braves at LoanDepot Park on September 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in very different seasons. The Marlins, with a disappointing 57-98 record, remain at the bottom of the National League East. Meanwhile, the Braves, at 84-71, are enjoying a solid, above-average season and continue their pursuit of a postseason berth.

In this third game of their series, the Marlins are projected to send Darren McCaughan to the mound. McCaughan, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled this season with an ERA of 7.64, ranking him 329th among starters. Despite his high-flyball tendencies, which could be problematic against the Braves' power-packed lineup, there's a glimmer of hope that he's been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his 6.36 xFIP. On the other hand, the Braves will counter with Grant Holmes. Holmes, also a righty, has been more effective with a 3.84 ERA and a solid 3.14 FIP, suggesting he's been slightly unlucky as well.

Offensively, the Marlins have had their struggles, ranking 29th in overall offense this season. However, they have shown some ability to hit for average, ranking 18th in team batting average. Kyle Stowers has been a bright spot, hitting .412 with a 1.150 OPS over the past week. Conversely, the Braves boast the 12th-best offense, with a notable focus on power, ranking 4th in home runs. Matt Olson is on a tear, hitting .381 with four homers in his last seven games.

While the Marlins are big underdogs with a +165 moneyline, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests a 5% edge over the betting market with a 41% chance of victory. For those looking for betting value, the Marlins could be an intriguing option.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Recording 94.8 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Grant Holmes checks in at the 89th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Bats such as Orlando Arcia with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Darren McCaughan who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Due to his large platoon split, Darren McCaughan will be at an advantage going up against 6 bats in the projected offense who share his hand today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jonah Bride has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 64 games at home (+27.55 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 154 games (+27.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+15.75 Units / 54% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.74 vs Miami Marlins 4.46

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