Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 6/21/2025

On June 21, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Atlanta Braves at LoanDepot Park for the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Marlins sitting at 30-44 and the Braves at 34-40. Despite their records, advanced-stat Power Rankings show Eury Perez as the 72nd best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he has the potential to improve after a tough start, while Grant Holmes ranks 83rd.

In their last game, the Braves fell short against the Marlins, which may have implications for their confidence coming into this matchup. The Marlins’ offense, ranked 19th in MLB, has had its challenges, particularly with power, managing just 65 home runs this year, ranking 26th overall. However, their batting average ranks 12th, indicating some underlying talent that could exploit Holmes' tendency to allow hits.

Holmes, a right-handed pitcher, projects to go six innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs and striking out 6.6 batters. Conversely, Perez is projected to pitch only 4.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs but struggling with walks and hits. His 6.43 ERA is far from ideal, although his 5.85 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky.

The Marlins' bullpen is ranked 26th, while the Braves' bullpen sits at 12th, which could be a deciding factor late in the game. With a game total set at 8.5 runs and the Marlins entering as underdogs with a moneyline of +125, this matchup offers potential value for bettors looking at the Marlins' chances to capitalize on any Braves’ missteps.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Because flyball pitchers have a significant advantage over flyball bats, Grant Holmes and his 42.9% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today's matchup facing 4 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt Olson may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Atlanta's 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in baseball: #6 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Eury Perez in the 88th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Typically, hitters like Jesus Sanchez who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Grant Holmes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Dane Myers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 64 games (+7.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.35 Units / 68% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5, Miami Marlins 3.86

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Eury Perez - Marlins

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