Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Pick – 6/22/2025

The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves meet for the third game of their series on June 22, 2025, at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins are struggling this season with a record of 30-45, while the Braves sit slightly better at 35-40, but both teams are looking to turn things around and compete for a playoff spot. The high-stakes atmosphere adds a layer of intensity, especially given the Braves’ current position as favorites with a moneyline of -140.

In their last matchup, the Braves managed to secure a win, which could act as a morale boost for them heading into this game. On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start Sandy Alcantara, who has had a rough year with a 3-8 record and an ERA of 6.88. Despite being ranked as the 54th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, his current form reflects significant struggles, with projections indicating he may allow above-average earned runs and hits.

Conversely, the Braves will counter with Bryce Elder, whose 4.45 ERA is considered average and ranks him lower on the Power Rankings. Elder’s projections suggest he may allow 2.5 earned runs today, which could help keep the Braves in contention for a win. The Braves' offense has been fairly consistent, ranking 17th in MLB, while the Marlins find themselves in the lower tier at 20th.

Additionally, the projections indicate that both teams might find it tough to generate runs against each other, with a game total set at 8.5 runs. Miami's lineup appears to be hampered by an inability to hit for power, which could play into Elder's strength as a high-groundball pitcher. The Marlins will need to capitalize on Elder’s groundball style to find any offensive rhythm, but they face an uphill battle based on current performances.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Among all starting pitchers, Bryce Elder's fastball velocity of 90.9 mph ranks in the 13th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Ozzie Albies generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sandy Alcantara.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Atlanta Braves batters jointly have been among the best in baseball this year (6th-) as far as their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Considering that groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Sandy Alcantara (49.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Eric Wagaman is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Dane Myers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.70 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+9.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+4.25 Units / 47% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.65, Miami Marlins 3.99

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Elder - Braves
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins

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