Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Pick – 6/20/2025

The Miami Marlins will host the Atlanta Braves on June 20, 2025, in a matchup that holds significance for both teams, though neither is in contention for a division title. The Marlins currently sit at 29-44, while the Braves have a slightly better record at 34-39. This game marks the beginning of a series between these two National League East rivals, with the Marlins looking to capitalize on their home advantage at LoanDepot Park.

Janson Junk, who has been inconsistent this season, is projected to start for the Marlins. Although he has posted an impressive 2.78 ERA, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been lucky and could regress. Contrastingly, Braves' Bryce Elder, while also deemed a below-average pitcher, has made 11 starts this season. His ERA of 4.45 is more in line with expectations, yet he has shown signs of improvement with a lower xFIP.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 19th in the league, struggling particularly in power metrics with only 64 home runs—5th fewest in MLB. The Braves, while also middling at 16th overall, carry a slight edge in their offensive capabilities. With a game total set at 9.0 runs, bettors are eyeing the Marlins as underdogs with a +120 moneyline, which may offer value given their recent performances and the matchup against a groundball pitcher like Elder. Miami could exploit Elder’s tendency to keep the ball on the ground, minimizing the damage done by their lack of power.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder has relied on his slider 7.3% more often this year (38.8%) than he did last season (31.5%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme groundball bats like Ozzie Albies tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Janson Junk.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Janson Junk was in good form in his previous outing and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Eric Wagaman is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dane Myers, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 54 games (+9.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 102% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.24, Miami Marlins 4.05

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Elder - Braves
  • Janson Junk - Marlins

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