Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Preview – 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Adam Oller - Marlins

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves look to capitalize on what has been an above-average season as they face the struggling Miami Marlins on September 21, 2024, at LoanDepot Park. With the Braves currently holding an 83-71 record and the Marlins enduring a tough season at 57-97, this National League East matchup appears to tilt heavily in favor of the visiting Braves. Atlanta sits comfortably in the standings with clear postseason aspirations, while Miami is simply playing out the string.

Max Fried, the Braves’ southpaw ace, will take the mound, coming into the game as the 5th### best starting pitcher in MLB per advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, Miami’s Adam Oller ranks 322nd, making him one of MLB's least effective starters. Fried's 3.49 ERA signifies his effectiveness, while Oller's 5.40 ERA tells a different story of struggles throughout the season.

The Braves offense, ranking 13th overall but 4th in home runs, benefits from facing Oller, a high-flyball pitcher prone to allowing big hits. Oller's projected 3.1 earned runs and 1.8 walks are stark weaknesses the Braves could exploit. Meanwhile, Miami’s offensive woes are highlighted by their position as the 29th best offense overall. Although Miami's Otto Lopez has been heating up recently, their team struggles to generate consistent runs, especially against a groundball maestro like Fried.

In their last encounter, the Braves triumphed over the Marlins, displaying both their strategic and statistical superiority. Consistency from Matt Olson, hitting .364 with 12 RBIs over the past week, enhances Atlanta's firepower as they aim for another series win. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with these insights, giving the Braves a 68% chance at victory, highlighting that Atlanta is well-positioned to continue their successful run and solidify their postseason positioning.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Max Fried has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 9 opposite-handed bats in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 88.1-mph figure last year has fallen off to 84.5-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today, Jake Burger is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.1% rate (92nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 61 games at home (+24.55 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 134 games (+32.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ramon Laureano has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.45 Units / 33% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.52 vs Miami Marlins 3.4

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