Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 3/31/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On March 31, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Atlanta Braves at Dodger Stadium for the first game in their series. The Dodgers are off to an impressive start, boasting a perfect 5-0 record this season, while the Braves have struggled significantly, sitting at 0-4. This matchup presents a classic battle between a dominant offense and a struggling pitching staff.

Tyler Glasnow is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, and he comes in as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Glasnow has shown the ability to strike out batters at a high rate, averaging 6.5 strikeouts per game, while allowing only 1.8 earned runs on average. However, he does struggle with hits and walks, allowing 3.7 hits and 1.6 walks on average, which could be a concern against a Braves lineup that has shown some power, ranking 4th in team home runs this season.

On the flip side, Grant Holmes will make his first start of the season for the Braves. While Holmes has a flawless 0.00 ERA from his one appearance out of the bullpen, he faces a daunting task against a Dodgers offense that ranks 2nd overall in MLB. The projections suggest that Holmes, despite his high strikeout rate, may struggle against a lineup that excels at capitalizing on mistakes.

With the Dodgers' strong offensive performance and Glasnow's elite pitching, they enter this game as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -210, implying a high team total of 4.69 runs. Meanwhile, the Braves' low implied team total of 3.31 runs reflects their ongoing struggles. This game will not only be crucial for the Braves to find momentum but also for the Dodgers to continue their winning streak.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Grant Holmes must realize this, because he has utilized his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 62.2% of the time, ranking in the 85th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Since the start of last season, Marcell Ozuna's 15.5% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 96th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Among all starting pitchers, Tyler Glasnow's fastball spin rate of 2556 rpm grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ranked in the 100th percentile, Shohei Ohtani has one of the highest average exit velocities in the majors since the start of last season (95.6-mph).

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.6% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 97 games (+28.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 96 of their last 156 games (+35.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 52% ROI)

• Date: March 31, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

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