Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 7/28/2025
The Kansas City Royals will host the Atlanta Braves in a game between teams with losing records this MLB season. The Royals are in the middle of a solid stretch of baseball entering this series. The Braves have struggled mightily of late and are desperate for any signs of momentum. Before this interleague matchup from Kansas City, you can continue reading to get my Braves vs Royals prediction.
Our Braves vs Royals Pick
- Pick: Royals moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Braves @ Royals
- Date & Time: Monday, July 28, 2025, 7:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Spencer Strider (4‑8, 3.72 ERA) vs Rich Hill (0‑1, 1.80 ERA)
- Stadium: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Broadcast: FDSKC and FDSSO
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Spencer Strider enters this game with a 3.72 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 72.2 innings. He has struggled with consistency in his last few outings. He has taken the loss in two of his four starts in July and will need to deliver for the Braves to win this game.
Rich Hill offers experience and control on the mound for the Royals. He took a loss in his first start of the season against the Chicago Cubs. But he only gave up one earned run in that game and will look for a similar showing here.
Key Players
- Matt Olson leads the Braves with 18 home runs and 65 RBI.
- Marcell Ozuna has a .358 OBP this year. That is right behind Olson for the best on the team among players who have appeared throughout the season.
- Bobby Witt Jr. provides a ton of value from the leadoff spot for the Royals. His 4.3 WAR leads the team.
- Salvador Perez has 18 homers and Vinnie Pasquantino has 17 home runs to give the Royals a nice one-two power punch.
Recent team streaks
- The Braves have dropped five straight games coming into this series opener.
- The Royals are 3‑1 in their last four games. They took two out of three against Cleveland in their last series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type |
|---|---|
| Matt Olson | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Spencer Strider | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
| Salvador Perez | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first game in a three-game season series between these two teams.
- The Braves are a miserable 18-34 on the road this season.
- The Royals are one game below .500 at home this year at 26-27.
Braves vs Royals Model Projection
Score Projection: Royals 6 – Braves 5
Win Probability: Braves 53%, Royals 47%
Final Thoughts
Spencer Strider is probably a better pitcher than Rich Hill right now over a large sample size. But in a one-game sample I don’t see a reason that Hill and the Royals can’t win on Monday. Atlanta is in a freefall lately and looks like they might not even compete for a playoff spot. I will gladly fade the Braves at a plus price right now by grabbing the Royals on the moneyline.
