Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/15/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Darius Vines - Braves
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 140, Astros 1.5 -160
• Money Line: Braves -110, Astros -110
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -120

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 50%
• Houston Astros - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 49.44%
• Houston Astros - 50.56%

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Game Preview & Prediction

The Houston Astros are set to take on the Atlanta Braves on April 15, 2024, at Minute Maid Park. As the home team, the Astros will be looking to improve their disappointing 6-11 record this season, while the Braves aim to continue their strong start with a 9-5 record. This Interleague matchup promises an intriguing battle between the two teams.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Spencer Arrighetti, who has had a challenging season so far. With a 0-1 record and a staggering 21.00 ERA, Arrighetti has struggled to find his form. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is considered one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. Despite this, his 7.14 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may bounce back in future performances.

Opposing Arrighetti will be Braves' right-handed pitcher Darius Vines. Vines also has his struggles, projected to pitch an average of 4.9 innings per game with an ERA below average. His strikeout projection is also below average, indicating a potential advantage for the Astros' offense.

Speaking of offense, both teams boast impressive lineups. The Astros rank as the 4th best offense in MLB this season, with a strong batting average and home run production. On the other hand, the Braves currently hold the top spot in MLB for offense, leading in batting average and home runs. With such potent lineups, we can expect an exciting display of hitting from both teams.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Braves have the advantage, ranking 8th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Astros' bullpen ranks as average. This could be a factor to consider in the late innings of the game.

Looking at the betting odds, the Astros enter the game as the underdogs with a +100 moneyline, indicating a 48% implied win probability. The Braves, with a -120 moneyline, have a 52% implied win probability. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between two teams with different strengths. The Astros will rely on their strong offense to overcome their struggling pitching, while the Braves aim to continue their impressive start to the season. With the Astros looking to turn their season around and the Braves aiming to maintain their momentum, this game promises excitement for both fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst among all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Orlando Arcia are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Spencer Arrighetti.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Because flyball batters hold a big edge over groundball pitchers, Spencer Arrighetti and his 37.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome position in today's matchup matching up with 1 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Yordan Alvarez's 17.7% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) is in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Braves vs Astros Prediction: Braves 5.44 - Astros 5.22

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.