Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/9/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Tanner Gordon - Rockies

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Rockies, with a record of 42-74, are struggling this season, while the Braves stand at 60-54, showcasing an above-average campaign. The Rockies’ recent performance has been particularly disheartening, having lost 9-1 to the New York Mets in their last game. Meanwhile, the Braves suffered a hefty 16-7 defeat against the Milwaukee Brewers, which is unusual for a team of their caliber.

On the mound, Tanner Gordon is projected to start for the Rockies. Despite a promising outing in his last start on August 3, where he pitched 6 innings allowing only 1 earned run, his overall season record of 0-3 and an ERA of 6.75 paint a grim picture. Gordon's 4.14 xFIP suggests he might have been unlucky, but he still ranks as the 249th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. In contrast, Grant Holmes, who is set to take the mound for the Braves, has posted an impressive ERA of 3.00 this season, indicating a solid performance despite being labeled a bad pitcher by MLB standards.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 17th in MLB, while the Braves are slightly ahead at 15th. However, the Rockies' best hitter this season, Brenton Doyle, has shown promise with 19 home runs and a solid OPS of .783. The projections indicate a potential value bet on the Rockies, who are currently underdogs with a moneyline of +145 and an implied team total of 4.87 runs. Given that the Braves are favored with a high implied team total of 6.13 runs, this matchup could provide fireworks, especially with a Game Total of 11.0 runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Grant Holmes is projected to throw 77 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Orlando Arcia is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Atlanta Braves are expected to tally the most runs (6.56 on average) of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Tanner Gordon will hold the platoon advantage against 7 opposing bats in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Charlie Blackmon's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 84.3-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 77.9-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Compared to their .319 overall projected rate, the .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup today suggests this version of the lineup considerably weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 100 games (+28.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+13.70 Units / 21% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 6.56 vs Colorado Rockies 5.53

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