Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/10/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

On August 10, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will host the Atlanta Braves at Coors Field for the second game of their series. The Rockies, struggling this season with a record of 43-74, recently snapped a losing streak by edging out the Braves 6-5 in their last game on August 9. Conversely, the Braves sit at 60-55, showcasing an above-average performance this year.

Today's matchup features two contrasting pitchers: Dakota Hudson for the Rockies and Max Fried for the Braves. Hudson, projected to start, ranks 280th among MLB pitchers, making him one of the worst in the league. His 5.84 ERA and 2-12 win-loss record tell a story of struggle, though he has been somewhat unlucky with a 5.32 xFIP. He averages just 4.2 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed per outing, suggesting a shaky outing is likely.

On the other hand, Max Fried stands tall as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting an impressive 3.40 ERA. Although he faced a rough outing in his last start, allowing five earned runs over just three innings, his overall season performance should instill confidence. Fried typically averages 5.7 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs allowed, indicating he can be relied upon to go deeper into the game.

In terms of offense, projections suggest the Rockies could score around 4.93 runs, while the Braves are expected to tally approximately 6.64 runs. With the Braves ranked 15th in overall offense and 10th in home runs this season, they could exploit Hudson's struggles. Meanwhile, Colorado’s best hitter this season, Brenton Doyle, will need to step up if the Rockies hope to steal another win against a favored Braves squad.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Max Fried’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (92 mph) has been quite a bit lower than than his seasonal rate (93.2 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Atlanta Braves will tally 6.64 runs on average in this matchup: the most of all teams playing today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Dakota Hudson is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #4 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Extreme flyball hitters like Kris Bryant tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .296 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .319 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.55 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 100 games (+26.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games (+17.20 Units / 143% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 6.64 vs Colorado Rockies 4.84

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