Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Preview – 8/11/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies are set to host the Atlanta Braves on August 11, 2024, in what is the third game of their series. The Braves, currently sporting a 61-55 record, have been performing above average this season and are in a good position, while the Rockies, at 43-75, find themselves struggling through a dismal campaign.

In their previous matchup, the Braves showcased their offensive prowess, coming off a decisive win. Kyle Freeland, projected to start for the Rockies, has had a tough year, posting a 5.65 ERA and ranking as the 158th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Freeland's struggles are compounded by his projections, as he is expected to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 3.5 earned runs and walking 1.4 batters on average.

On the opposing mound, Spencer Schwellenbach is projected to start for the Braves. With an ERA of 4.04 and ranking as the 28th best starting pitcher, Schwellenbach presents a solid challenge for the Rockies. His ability to strike out batters (26.7% K%) aligns well against the Rockies' high-strikeout offense, which ranks 3rd most in MLB. Given the Rockies' low-walk tendencies, Schwellenbach might exploit their impatience at the plate.

Analyzing both teams, the Rockies' offense ranks 20th overall, despite a respectable 10th place in home runs. However, their ability to get on base remains a concern. Conversely, the Braves' lineup, which sits 14th overall in offense, has a good chance to capitalize on Freeland's inefficiencies and maintain their edge in the game. With a Game Total currently set at 10.5 runs, bettors may want to consider the Braves’ strong position heading into this matchup.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (66.3% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Colorado's #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Orlando Arcia, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Atlanta Braves are expected to tally the most runs (6.76 on average) of the day.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland's 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 2.9-mph jump from last year's 88.2-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Elias Diaz is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 43 games at home (+6.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 100 games (+24.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 23 games at home (+13.50 Units / 59% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 6.76 vs Colorado Rockies 5.29

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.