Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 8/15/2025
The Cleveland Guardians will host the Atlanta Braves at Progressive Field in Cleveland on Friday evening. Cleveland enters the contest as a modest moneyline favorite at home as they jockey for playoff positioning. The Guardians will have to overcome a promising starting pitcher for Atlanta if they want to get the win. Here, I take a closer look at this interleague matchup and bring you my Braves vs Guardians prediction for Friday.
Our Braves vs Guardians Pick
- Pick: Guardians Moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves
- Date & Time: Friday, August 15, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Hurston Waldrep (2–0, 1.54 ERA) vs Joey Cantillo (3–2, 4.11 ERA)
- Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
The Braves hand the ball to Hurston Waldrep. Waldrep is a rising right-hander with a 1.54 ERA across a small sample size of 11.2 innings. Opposing Waldrep is Cleveland’s Joey Cantillo. Cantillo is a lefty still adjusting to a starting role. He has a 4.11 ERA and his 32 walks over 61.1 innings are a cause for legitimate concern.
Playoff Picture
- The Braves are 11 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot and are unlikely to mount a serious challenge for the postseason. The only teams with worse records than the Braves in the National League are the Pirates, Nationals, and Rockies.
- Cleveland enters Friday’s game just a half-game behind the New York Yankees for the final American League Wild Card spot. They could move ahead of New York with a win and a Yankees loss to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Braves have won two games in a row and four of their last five. They won two out of three against the New York Mets in their last series.
- Cleveland has won three of its last five games. But they played some weak competition in the Marlins and White Sox over that stretch.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| José Ramírez | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Matt Olson | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Hurston Waldrep | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first game of the season series between the Braves and Guardians.
- Atlanta is 23-38 at home on the season.
- Cleveland is 31-28 in their home games this year.
- The Braves have covered the runline just 45.5% of the time this season. Only five teams have worse records on the runline than the Braves in 2025.
Braves vs Guardians Model Projection
Score Projection: Guardians 5 – Braves 4
Win Probability: Guardians 54%, Braves 46%
Final Thoughts
Waldrep has looked very good for the Braves so far this year. But the sample size from him is so limited that it is tough to take anything meaningful from that. I’ll bank on there being some regression from Waldrep in this game. I’ll take the Guardians to win this contest on the moneyline at home.
