Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Brandon Williamson - Reds

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on September 17, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the National League. The Reds, at 73-78, are having a below-average season, while the Braves sit at 81-69, marking them as a competitive force. The Reds have been inconsistent lately, but they will be buoyed by their recent performances, including a strong showing from TJ Friedl, who has been their best hitter over the last week.

On the mound, Cincinnati is set to start Brandon Williamson, a left-handed pitcher with an impressive 2.08 ERA this season. However, his 4.26 xFIP suggests that he may have benefited from some good luck, and his projections indicate he could struggle today, averaging 3.0 earned runs and 5.2 hits allowed. Grant Holmes, the Braves’ right-handed pitcher, comes in with a solid 3.79 ERA, but his 3.10 FIP indicates he has been a bit unlucky this season. Holmes projects to allow 2.3 earned runs and 4.4 hits, making him a slightly more favorable option for Atlanta.

Offensively, the Reds rank 16th best in MLB, but they struggle with a 26th rank in team batting average. Their power numbers are respectable, ranking 14th in home runs, while their speed on the bases has been a highlight, ranking 2nd in stolen bases. The Braves, on the other hand, boast the 5th best home run ranking but struggle with a 29th ranking in stolen bases, indicating a different style of play.

With a game total set at a high 9.0 runs, both teams are expected to put up some offense. The Reds have a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, while the Braves project at 4.55 runs. Given the close odds, this matchup promises to be a tightly contested game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Grant Holmes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna's true offensive ability to be a .348, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .048 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .396 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Michael Harris II hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the weakest among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 16.6° mark is among the highest in the game this year (#1 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games at home (+14.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 139 games (+33.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 30 of his last 34 games (+23.10 Units / 39% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.64 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.02

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.