Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Jakob Junis - Reds

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On September 18, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their series. The Braves come into this matchup with a record of 81-70, currently holding a solid position above the .500 mark, while the Reds sit at 74-78, having an average season. This game is crucial for both teams, especially for the Braves, who are looking to solidify their playoff positioning.

In their last game, the Reds upset the Braves, putting pressure on the Braves to get a win here as they are in the thick of the NL Wild Card chase. The Reds are projected to start Jakob Junis, who has had a decent year with a 4-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.73. However, his 3.96 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate, and he is projected to struggle today, averaging only 4.6 innings with 2.8 earned runs allowed.

On the other hand, Spencer Schwellenbach will take the mound for the Braves. With a record of 6-7 and a solid ERA of 3.73, Schwellenbach has been more consistent, and the projections suggest he will pitch around 5.0 innings while allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs. His ability to limit damage could be pivotal against a Reds offense that ranks 26th in batting average but does possess power, ranking 14th in home runs.

The Reds will look to their best hitter, Spencer Steer, who has been hot lately, recording a .273 batting average and an OPS of 1.087 over the last week. However, they will need more than just Steer to compete against a Braves lineup that features Jorge Soler, who has been on fire with a .450 batting average over the same period.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs and the Reds coming in as underdogs with a moneyline of +130, this matchup presents an intriguing betting opportunity. The Braves are favored at -150, reflecting their stronger season and recent performance. As both teams aim to establish momentum, the outcome will hinge on pitching effectiveness and offensive execution.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach has tallied 17.3 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jorge Soler has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 99-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Because of his large platoon split, Jakob Junis will be at an advantage being matched up with 7 batters in the projected batting order who share his handedness today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (14.8) may lead us to conclude that TJ Friedl has experienced some positive variance this year with his 25.8 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+12.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 127 games (+27.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.6 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.54

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.