Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 23, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Darius Vines - Braves
  • Ben Brown - Cubs

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On May 23, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the Atlanta Braves at Wrigley Field. The Cubs, with a record of 27-23, are having an above-average season, while the Braves boast an impressive record of 28-18, indicating a great season for them. This National League matchup is the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Cubs, as the home team, will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd at Wrigley Field. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ben Brown, who has had a solid season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Brown is ranked as the #82 best starting pitcher in MLB, which is above average. He has a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 3.57, indicating his effectiveness on the mound. However, his 5.10 xERA suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could potentially perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Braves will send AJ Smith-Shawver to the mound. Smith-Shawver is a right-handed pitcher who, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, is one of the worst pitchers in MLB. This could give the Cubs an advantage, as they have a strong offense.

Speaking of offense, the Cubs rank as the 16th best team in MLB this season. They have a good team batting average, ranking 9th in the league, and an average ranking in team home runs. However, their stolen bases rank 6th in MLB, indicating their ability to put pressure on the bases.

The Braves, on the other hand, have an impressive offense, ranking as the 6th best team in MLB. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, showcasing their power at the plate. Their stolen bases rank 7th in MLB, adding another dimension to their offensive prowess.

When it comes to the pitching staff, the Cubs have an average bullpen ranking, while the Braves have a strong bullpen, ranking 6th in MLB. This could give the Braves an advantage in the later innings of the game.

In terms of the betting market, the Cubs are considered the underdogs with a moneyline set at +105, implying a 47% chance of winning. The Braves, with a moneyline set at -125, have a 53% chance of winning according to the betting markets. However, THE BAT X projects the Cubs to have a 55% win probability, suggesting potential value in betting on the Cubs.

Overall, this game is expected to be a close matchup between two teams with different strengths. The Cubs will rely on their solid pitching and average offense, while the Braves will look to their powerful offense and strong bullpen. With the projections favoring the Cubs, it will be interesting to see how the game unfolds on May 23.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ben Brown to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Typically, bats like Cody Bellinger who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as AJ Smith-Shawver.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+13.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 17 games at home (+11.90 Units / 70% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.23 vs Chicago Cubs 4.36

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