Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks 5/22/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are set to host the Atlanta Braves in an exciting National League matchup at Wrigley Field on May 22, 2024. The Cubs, with a season record of 27-22, are having a good season so far, while the Braves boast an impressive 27-18 record, making it a great season for them.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Justin Steele, who has shown promise as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Steele has started four games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.21, although his 3.96 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and might perform better going forward.

Opposing Steele will be the Braves' left-handed pitcher Max Fried, who is considered one of the best starting pitchers in the league, ranking fourth in our Power Rankings. Fried has started nine games this season, with a win/loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.81.

In terms of offense, the Cubs rank 15th in MLB, while the Braves rank 6th. The Braves have been particularly strong in team batting average and home runs, ranking first in both categories. Meanwhile, the Cubs have excelled in team stolen bases, ranking 6th in the league.

Looking at the betting odds, the Cubs are currently the underdogs with a +115 moneyline, implying a win probability of 45%. The Braves, on the other hand, are the favorites with a -135 moneyline and a win probability of 55%, according to the betting markets. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Braves to have a higher win probability at 55%.

Based on the current odds, the Cubs have an average implied team total of 4.24 runs, while the Braves have a high implied team total of 4.76 runs. THE BAT X projects the Cubs to score 3.86 runs on average in this game, while the Braves are projected to score 4.60 runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Max Fried (52.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 FB hitters in Chicago's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Adam Duvall has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Justin Steele has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 64.6% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Nico Hoerner's speed has dropped off this year. His 28.54 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.82 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Projected catcher Yan Gomes grades out as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.20 Units / 70% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 25 games (+18.65 Units / 67% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.55 Units / 32% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.61 vs Chicago Cubs 3.91

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