Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 5/17/2025

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to take on the Atlanta Braves on May 17, 2025, at Fenway Park, both teams are looking to capitalize on their previous matchup, where the Braves narrowly edged out the Red Sox. Currently, Boston sits with a record of 22-24, struggling to find their rhythm this season, while Atlanta is slightly ahead at 23-22, holding steady in the middle of the pack. This interleague series is crucial for both clubs as they aim to gain momentum.

Boston's Lucas Giolito is projected to start, bringing a mixed bag of results this season. With a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an alarming ERA of 5.51, Giolito hasn’t exactly inspired confidence. However, his 3.80 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky, and perhaps a turnaround is imminent. His average projection of 5.4 innings pitched isn’t extraordinary, but he tends to strike out an average of 5.0 batters, which could be key against Atlanta's average offense.

On the other mound, the Braves will send Grant Holmes, who has a slightly better ERA of 4.14 but is also considered below average according to the projections. Holmes has struggled with his ability to limit hits, projected to allow 6.1 hits and 1.8 walks today, which could spell trouble against Boston's 8th-ranked offense. The Red Sox have shown flashes of brilliance, ranking 8th in team batting average and home runs, which could exploit Holmes’ inconsistencies.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets view this as a close contest. Boston holds a current moneyline of -120, indicating they are the slight favorites. With an implied team total of 4.61 runs, the Red Sox offense will need to show up and capitalize on their opportunities if they want to turn their season around.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Grant Holmes's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (59.3% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Matt Olson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last year's 91.3-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Atlanta (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox batters as a unit rank among the elite in Major League Baseball this year () when assessing their 90.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• Wilyer Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.27, Boston Red Sox 5.17

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Lucas Giolito - Red Sox

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