Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 5/18/2025

As the Boston Red Sox host the Atlanta Braves on May 18, 2025, both teams find themselves in the thick of an average season, with the Red Sox holding a record of 23-24 and the Braves at 23-23. After a closely contested game yesterday, where the Red Sox narrowly won, this matchup takes on added significance as both sides look to gain momentum.

The Red Sox’s Brayan Bello is projected to start, boasting a solid 2-0 record and an impressive 2.33 ERA in just 5 starts this season. However, his 4.64 xFIP indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate thus far. Expect him to pitch around 5.1 innings today, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs while striking out just 4.2 batters, which could be concerning against an offense that, although average, has the potential to capitalize on mistakes.

On the other side, the Braves will counter with Spencer Schwellenbach, who, despite a 2-3 record and a 3.31 ERA over 9 starts, has been rated as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings. Schwellenbach is likely to pitch approximately 5.6 innings, allowing around 2.8 earned runs, and with his strikeout projection at 5.2, he could pose a challenge for the Red Sox.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 8th in MLB, while the Braves are 18th. With a game total set at 9.0 runs and the Red Sox's moneyline at +115, this matchup presents a compelling betting opportunity. The projections suggest the Red Sox have the potential to outperform expectations, especially with a strong home advantage at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Given that flyball hitters hold a sizeable edge over groundball pitchers, Spencer Schwellenbach and his 45.3% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard position in this matchup matching up with 2 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Over the last 7 days, Eli White's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (51.2 compared to 45% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Trevor Story's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 89.3-mph seasonal average has decreased to 79.4-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the Boston Red Sox offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.70 Units / 52% ROI)
• Nick Allen has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.10 Units / 55% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.08, Boston Red Sox 4.68

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

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